Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 <scp>US</scp> presidential election

This paper provides evidence on the effects of US and Chinese trade policies 2020 presidential election. In response to a series tariffs imposed goods, China retaliatory tariffs, especially agricultural products, which largely affected Republican-leaning counties. The government then subsidized farmers by providing direct payments through Market Facilitation Program (MFP) mitigate tariffs. Using universe actual county-level MFP disbursement data, we document that relative tariff exposure were higher in solidly Republican counties, implying Trump administration allocated rents exchange for political patronage. We also find outweighed estimated impact led an increase vote share Finally, uncover China's policy corresponding exacerbated polarization US, rural–urban divide.